Quantifying vulnerability to natural hazards in changing climate patterns. New perspectives and methods

​The programme provides an interdisciplinary and challenge-based learning environment focused on understanding vulnerability in the context of climate change and multi-hazard dynamics. By combining perspectives from geosciences, social sciences, engineering, and spatial technologies, the BIP approaches vulnerability as a complex and dynamic process within coupled human–environment systems. 

Hosted by the University of Bucharest, the course proposes an innovative approach to vulnerability. It integrates theoretical foundations with practical applications through Impact Chain approaches, GIS-supported spatial multicriteria analysis, UAV/drone mapping, and field-based investigations. 

The virtual component establishes the conceptual and methodological basis of the programme, while the physical component emphasizes collaborative field-learning activities in the Buzău Mountains, Romania. 

The programme aims to strengthen analytical, spatial, critical-thinking, and science communication skills relevant to disaster risk reduction, resilience planning, and sustainable adaptation strategies across diverse environmental and socio-cultural contexts.

Context

Vulnerability is the most important predictive variable in the risk equation, but it is challenging to evaluate the best objective approach to quantify it. Significant efforts have been made to measure vulnerability for the past thirty years. Still, the field of vulnerability assessments has been dominated by hierarchical rather than inductive approaches.

This BIP brings together experts from geography (climate change, geomorphology), engineering, psychology, sociology, and anthropology. They will provide practical learning actions that support the development of competencies and skills needed for understanding the chained relationships between susceptibility-hazard-impact-vulnerability-resilience in a changing world.

The programme aims to prepare a new generation of scientists with an advanced understanding of how global changes in the Anthropocene (related to climate, environmental, and socio-economic aspects) are concatenated within complex vulnerability patterns generating risks. 

High-level training facilities and scientific and technological excellence will empower the next generation of researchers to understand how these vulnerability changes can be assessed, modelled, and incorporated into sustainable risk management and disaster coping strategies by:

1. providing skills and knowledge in the field of hazard, susceptibility, and vulnerability assessments for students from different parts of Europe and Africa;
2. exploring the dynamics and outcomes of challenge-based learning approaches in geosciences and geospatial projects; 
3. identifying and modelling vulnerability-impact relations across different impacts, starting from the impact chain (UNDRR 2022) of multi-hazard situations, in an attempt to bridge the gap between vulnerability analyses that describe only patterns and those that produce a quantitative value;
4. differentiating between vulnerability-sensitivity and susceptibility of natural and human features to produce bias-(more) free vulnerability assessments;
5. identify spatial vulnerability patterns and dynamics through GIS-based spatial modelling and spatial-statistical methods.

The programme consists of both virtual courses and workshops and a 5-day field-learning activity, where students can deepen the knowledge and skills acquired during the virtual component and apply them in a challenge-based learning environment. 

The program's online component will consist of 5 sessions spread across five weeks, featuring academics from eight universities (in Romania, Greece, Italy, Sweden, the UK, Switzerland, Uganda and South Africa) and invited speakers from various research institutes in Romania and Mexico.

The virtual part will be closely connected to the physical component, lasting 5 days and taking place in the Buzău Mountains, Romania - a natural laboratory for an immersive understanding of geohazard dynamics and changes in vulnerability. 

The proposed training on complex vulnerability will significantly strengthen research in spatial risk assessments. Ultimately, this vulnerability-related training will bolster the coping strategies of natural and human systems in a changing environment with the risk of increasingly severe and frequent natural and man-made disasters.

• Conceptual and terminological challenges in risk science and vulnerability research
• Vulnerability frameworks and systemic vulnerability in the Anthropocene
• Climate change and cascading multi-hazard dynamics
• Environmental vulnerability across contrasting settings, from coastal areas affected by sea-level rise to active mountain environments
• Present-day geomorphological dynamics and hazard processes in active orogens
• Impact Chain approaches and systemic vulnerability modelling
• UAV/drone mapping and high-resolution terrain analysis for hazard and vulnerability assessment
• GIS-supported spatial multicriteria methods for spatial vulnerability analysis and risk assessment
• Scenario-based approaches for disaster risk reduction and local coping strategies

At the end of the BIP, students will be able to:

• distinguish between the stable and dynamic components of vulnerability and evaluate their role in risk generation;
• analyse vulnerability within the context of climate change and cascading multi-hazard dynamics;
• interpret how climate change amplifies cascading hazard interactions;
• assess vulnerability, susceptibility, and hazard conditions in mountain environments using field-based and geospatial approaches;
• apply GIS-based spatial analysis, spatial-statistical methods, and UAV/drone mapping techniques in vulnerability and risk assessments;
• critically evaluate vulnerability assessment methods, indicators, and data sources across different spatial and temporal scales;
• integrate local knowledge with modern geospatial technologies and scientific approaches in disaster risk reduction;
• develop scenario-based approaches for addressing uncertainty in complex human–environment systems;
• analyse spatial and non-spatial datasets using appropriate digital technologies and analytical tools;
• apply interdisciplinary perspectives to disaster risk reduction and resilience planning;
• demonstrate problem-solving skills in challenge-based learning environments related to natural hazards and vulnerability;
• critically reflect on the complexity and interdependence of natural, social, and cultural systems in risk-prone environments.

The physical part is field-based and will be hosted at the Pătârlagele Natural Hazards Research Center (Romanian Academy, Institute of Geography), in the Vrancea seismic region (Curvature Carpathians of Romania) between 14 - 18 June 2027. 

We aim to use the Vrancea seismic region's field ‘lab’ to better understand the emerging vulnerabilities in coping with uncertainty from interactions between environmental and human components. 

The training programme will fully exploit trainers' complementary expertise and stimulate knowledge transfer within the network. Secondly, the physical component will complete and apply the theoretical achievements to practical situations in the field, in the environmental context represented by slope instabilities and large earthquakes triggered mass movements of the Buzau Mountains, Romania.

The research and training activities are strongly interwoven into three main parts: theoretical background, field-trip training, and laboratory activities/ computer processing.

The list below indicates the main issues and activities scheduled in the field and the lab. These are organized as Learning Packages that focus on specific risk components:

Learning Package 1: Hazard

• using the VR environment to explore, interact with, and understand geographic conditions and dynamics in the hazard domain;
• applying UAV/ drone mapping to focus on the conditions that contribute to natural hazards;
• understanding hazard chains (cascading hazards) and cascade development of events (seismic effects, mass movements, avalanching-erosion-deposition, dam formation, breaching impact waves, flash floods-debris flows);
• quantitative field measurements on the prospection of mass movements (RTK-GNSS, UAV, terrestrial, and airborne laser scans).

Learning Package 2: Vulnerability and Societal Impact

• untangling disaster processes through Impact Chain analysis;
• understanding vulnerability dynamics using an enhanced Impact Chain-based approach;
• applying GIS-supported spatial multicriteria vulnerability analysis;
• simulating risk mitigation measures to identify critical uncertainties in decision-making and develop local coping strategies.

Take a look at a StoryMap created by one of the participants, capturing her experience during this BIP. 

The virtual component will take place between 10 May - 7 June 2027. The five sessions are designed as preparatory modules, providing the theoretical framework for the physical component. They will introduce participants to the challenges posed by climate change and contemporary vulnerability frameworks in the Anthropocene.

The focus will then shift across contrasting environments, from coastal areas affected by sea-level rise to high-mountain regions shaped by dynamic hazard processes under changing climatic conditions, highlighting the complex interactions among environmental change, hazards, exposure, and human vulnerability. 

The interaction between experts with different but complementary physical and social sciences backgrounds will help students better understand the chained relationships between susceptibility-hazard-impact-vulnerability-resilience.

The virtual component will include live presentations, challenge-based learning, and asynchronous training tools such as multimedia content and recorded lectures. 

10 May 2027, 16:00 – 18:00 CET

• lecture: Vulnerability in the Age of the Anthropocene, Iuliana Armaș (University of Bucharest)

17 May 2027, 16:00 – 18:00 CET

• lecture: State of the climate,  Alasdair Skelton (Stockholm University)

24 May 2027, 16:00 – 18:00 CET

• lecture: Sea level changes – challenges to coastal areas and adaptation methods, Niki Evelpidou (EKPA), Anna Karkani (EKPA), Giannis Saitis (EKPA)
• lecture: Community vulnerability assessments to sea level changes in Scotland, Ria Dunkley (University of Glasgow)

31 May 2027, 16:00 – 18:00 CET

• lecture: Deciphering the climatic and tectonic signals in landscape evolution of active orogens, Marta Della Seta (Sapienza Università di Roma)
• lecture: Changing geohazards in response to tectonic and climatic forcing, Marc-Henri Derron (Université de Lausanne)

7 June 2027, 16:00 – 18:00 CET

• lecture: Dynamics of geohazards and disasters in fragile coupled landscapes under changing climate, Bamutaze Yazidhi (Makerere University, Uganda)
• lecture: How to increase the resilience of landscapes and communities to climate change impacts, Jasper Knight (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa) 

• Evaluation of students on the virtual component will be accomplished through online quizzes.
  
• Students will be evaluated on their fieldwork by presenting the outcome of the selected research topic at the end of the physical mobility component.

Motivation Letter

CV

Students will be evaluated based on:

• motivation;
• scientific rigour;
• critical thinking;
• knowledge application;
• concision and Clarity.

Iuliana Armaș is Professor of Physical Geography and Natural Hazards in the Department of Geography, Pedology and Geomatics, Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest. She is Director of the Doctoral School of Geography, the Disaster Management Master Programme, and the Risk Research Center at the University of Bucharest, Romania. Her work integrates geomorphological, spatial, and socio-environmental approaches to understanding vulnerability and disaster risk in changing environments. She is the author of more than 100 publications in international peer-reviewed journals, 12 books, and numerous book chapters and educational textbooks.

Ștefan Dorondel is an environmental anthropologist/ environmental historian with a Ph.D. in History and Ethnology from the University of Sibiu (Romania) and a Ph.D. in Rural Studies from the Humboldt University Berlin (Germany). He is interested in wetlands, river history and forests and the people who live in these landscapes from Southeast Europe (mainly Romania and Bulgaria). His last co-edited volume was A New Ecological Order. Development and the Transformation of Nature in Eastern Europe, The University of Pittsburgh Press (2022).

Mihai Micu is a Physical Geographer, Senior Researcher at the Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Bucharest. He is the Vice-President of the International Association of Geomorphologists. His main topics of research are focused on the morphodynamic analysis of slope processes, with a special focus on landslides for local and regional scale susceptibility assessment, frequency-magnitude correlations, hazard evaluation, risk analysis, assessment and management, earthquake-induced landslides. His main area of research is the Vrancea Seismic Region (SE Carpathians), an area recognized as a European multi-hazard hotspot. He has published more than 60 papers (articles, book chapters) in international peer-reviewed journals and books.

Dr. Dragoș Toma-Dănilă is a researcher at the National Institute for Earth Physics and at the Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Romania. His main activities are related to seismic hazard and risk analysis, GIS, drone mapping and educational outreach. He is the administrator of the System for Rapid Estimation of Seismic Damage in Romania and was involved in multiple projects such as MULTICARE, PARATUS, TURNKEY, SERA, PREQUAKE or RO-RISK. His PhD thesis was related to the seismic risk of transportation networks. He contributed to the development of the Earthquake Mobile Exhibition (MOBEE) and the “Bucharest and Earthquakes” guided tour.

Jasper Knight is Professor of Physical Geography at the University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. His work deals with geomorphic and environmental impacts of Quaternary and Holocene climate change, in particular on the sediment systems of mountains, rivers and coasts, and mainly in glaciated and semiarid environments. He is also concerned with the responses of these sediment systems to ongoing change in the Anthropocene, including paraglaciation, geohazards, and provision of environmental services.

Alasdair Skelton is Professor of Geochemistry and Petrology at the Department of Geological Sciences, Stockholm University. He is also affiliated to the Department of Environmental Science. His published works are on geology, earthquakes, volcanism, tsunamis, climate of the past and the ongoing climate crisis. He is Chairperson for the European Civic University Hub on Climate, Environment and Energy. He has educated tens of thousands of students at all levels from kindergarten to university, as well as a wide range of public audiences, about geology and climate. He is co-founder of Researcher’s Desk.

Marta Della Seta is Associate Professor in Physical Geography and Geomorphology at Sapienza Università di Roma. The evolution of drainage networks and slope landforms in response to tectonics, climate, and volcanism is her primary research topic. In particular, she is interested in the medium-to-long term landscape evolution modelling from geomorphic markers, for the estimation of tectonic deformation rates and slope stability. Her studies involve the Mediterranean region (Italy, Southeastern Spain) and Central Iran. She has been member of the Executive Committee of the International Association of Geomorphologists and is currently member of the Executive Committee of the Italian Geological Society.

Dr. Marc-Henri Derron is senior lecturer in the group RISK of the University of Lausanne, Switzerland, since 2009. The focus on my work in on hazard and risk analysis related to slope processes, utilizing remote sensing technologies, lab experiments and field investigations. Prior to this, he worked as a Geologist Researcher at the Geological Survey of Norway, mostly on developing innovative techniques for geohazards mapping and monitoring. He participates in projects across Asia, Africa, and Europe, which integrate cutting-edge techniques (such as insar or lidar) with fieldwork and addressing the needs of local populations.

Yazidhi Bamutaze is a Professor of Geography in the Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University and the Deputy Principal of the College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Makerere University. His research is currently concentrated on geohazards and environmental risk and associated human dimension particularly in fragile environments under changing conditions. He's had a line of concentration especially on landslides, flood and soil erosion in strongly coupled highland landscapes addressing both the physical and human aspects.

Niki Evelpidou is a Professor at the Department of Geology & Geoenvironment of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, since 2022 she is nominated elected member of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts. Her research focuses on geomorphology, coastal geomorphology, sea level changes, paleogeography, the study and modeling on natural hazards and adaptation and mitigation strategies. Her research numbers more than 340 publications in scientific conferences and journals, 35 books, while she has given many lectures in Greece and abroad. She is actively involved in academic, research and educational activities, as she has organized more than 35 educational seminars and training schools while she has participated in the organization of 45 international workshops and conferences. Prof. Evelpidou has received several awards and recognitions, with the most prominent those from the Academy of Athens.

Dr. Anna Karkani is a Laboratory Teaching Staff member at the Department of Geology & Geoenvironment of the National & Kapodistrian University of Athens. Her research interests are mainly focused on geomorphology, coastal geomorphology, natural hazards, palaeogeography and sea level changes. Her research numbers 43 publications in scientific journals, 37 conference announcements, as well as 10 books and educational textbooks. She is also actively involved in the organization of conferences, workshops and training schools related to geomorphological subjects.

Dr. Giannis Saitis is a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of Geology & Geoenvironment of National & Kapodistrian University of Athens . His fields of interest are interdisciplinary and involves applied environmental geomorphology (natural disasters risk assessment studies, geochemical and mineralogical analyzes of rocks, research in coastal areas, etc.), evolution of the coastal zone and effects of climate change and natural hazards (change sea level, tsunami, coastal erosion), palaeogeographic reconstruction, geoarchaeological survey and geological mapping and analysis in a GIS environment. Dr. Giannis Saitis holds 21 publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals, 23 participations in international and national conferences. 

Dr Ria Dunkley is a Senior Lecturer in Geography, Environment and Sustainability at the University of Glasgow. She specialises in eco-pedagogy as a route to enabling an understanding of the climate crisis. She is currently leading the Community Collaboration work within GALLANT, based within the Centre for Sustainable Solutions and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). She is co-chair of the European CIVIS hub for Climate, Energy and Environment and Associate Director of the Centre for Sustainable Solutions.

Blended Intensive Programme

This CIVIS course is a Blended Intensive Programme (BIP): a new format of Erasmus+ mobility which combines online teaching with a short trip to another campus to learn alongside students and professors across Europe.

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