Strategic Foresight

Strategic Foresight and Future Studies emerge as a critical capability in this area because today's world faces an unprecedented polycrisis, a convergence of interlinked global challenges. Climate change, geopolitical shifts, economic volatility, technological disruption, and societal transformations are no longer isolated events but interconnected forces that amplify and exacerbate one another. 

This complex and dynamic landscape demands a new generation of researchers, public officials, and managers equipped with the tools to anticipate and address the multifaceted manifestations of the polycrisis at various levels and across different countries. This Blended Intensive Programme, developed under the CIVIS Alliance, seeks to cultivate these essential skills in graduate students, enabling them to become effective agents of change in the face of the polycrisis. 

'Visions of the future' are part of any political debate or project (White, 2024). As such, both polities and politics are shaped by their understanding of their future(s). However, contemporary policymaking has seen an uptick in future debates and forecasting efforts (Andersson, 2012 & 2018). While specific policy forecasts generally fail to materialize, this, perhaps counterintuitively, does not diminish their importance as their raison d’être is the coordination of present action via the ‘fictional expectations’ they create (Esposito & Becker, 2023).

In response to contemporary polycrisis, characterised as a complex system of interconnected crises that transcend specific domains and influence each other (Duit & Galaz, 2008; Orsini et al., 2020; Berten & Kranke, 2024), policymakers have sought to harness the coordinative value of forecasting exercises (Berten & Kranke, 2024), notably within a uniquely complex polity as the European Union. (e.g. Brack & Gürkan 2020; Bressanelli & Natali, 2023; Smeets & Beach, 2023; Hoeffler, Hofmann, & Mérand 2024). As a result, it has become essential to understand how political institutions, the variety of actors involved, and scientific models forge what we conceive of, or not, as potential futures.

Increasingly, the necessary skill set is aimed at navigating policymaking in the European Union in general, and in response to polycrisis in particular.

The main skills and knowledge set associated with the course are aimed at navigating policymaking in the European Union in general and in response to the polycrisis in particular. They include: 

• Unpacking the structures, actors, processes, and the way contestation can open or foreclose potential futures through present action (see. - Blyth, 2006; Costanzo & MacKay, 2009; Hein, C. 2018; Clift & Kuzemko 2024) 
• Acquiring the skills associated with the rigorous production of policy-centric forecasting (see Bäckstrand, 2004; Varum & Melo, 2010; Bishop & Hines, 2012; Amer, Daim & Jetter, 2013; Schwarz, 2023) 

By the end of the programme, students will have experienced and learned to: 

• work effectively in an interdisciplinary team;
• understand and apply key concepts and methodologies in Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight;
• develop and analyse real-world scenarios involving the interaction between major types of challenges (e.g., climate change & epidemic risks; democratic backsliding & foreign interference; competitivity loss & welfare system’s sustainability; ecological transitions & social justice; electrification & heightened extractivism; crisis of democratic representation & polarisation; … etc.);
• produce policy briefs that provide actionable recommendations for managing polycrises. 

The (English-spoken) in-person workshop will take place between 25-29 January 2027 at the Université Libre de Bruxelles (Belgium) and will focus on applying the knowledge gained during the online seminar. The workshop will culminate in a presentation session where students will showcase their policy briefs and receive feedback from peers and experts. During the week, students will: 

• enhance and present their real-world scenarios developed during the semester;
• participate in hands-on activities and collaborative projects with experts;
• develop one policy brief per small group, based on their scenarios, providing actionable recommendations for managing complex risks. 

The workshop will also take full advantage of its location in Brussels to interface with the European institutions. EU practitioners will be included as contributors to the workshop’s different sessions, and time will be set aside for visits to the EU institutions, notably targeting their forecasting units.

Concretely, students will be divided into 3-to-4 groups reflecting the topics presented at the last course of the hybrid training sessions. Participants will focus their efforts on working as a group to produce a foresight report in response to a specific policy challenge of their choice.

Challenges to be broach by the different simulation groups in January 2026 will include:

• an UAM-led group on ‘Urban Planning and Sustainability’;
• an UAM-led group on 'Regulation and Technology';
• an ULB-led group on ‘Social Europe’;
• a PLUS-led group on ‘Gender and Equity’;
• a Makerere-led group on 'Migration Policies';
• an UCAD-led group on 'Conflict Management'.

The virtual part will take place between October 5, 2026, and December 18, 2026. 

It will cover the following key topics over the course of six 2h-long sessions:

Session 1 (week of 5 October): "Introduction to Futures Studies: History and key concepts Hybrid class Speakers" - an introductory course exploring the history of foresight. The first hour will focus on the conceptual and epistemological foundations of the field of foresight and its relation to theories of decision and change. 

Session 2 (week of 19 October): "Foresight Methods & Techniques" - the first of two methods-focused courses will explore the strengths and weaknesses of the various techniques associated with strategic foresight. The first hour will describe the key qualitative approaches to foresight, notably horizon scanning (as a fundamental technique for the systematic exploration and analysis of emerging trends, potential disruptions, and signals of change), futures wheels (for the analysis of causal chains), and risk worlds (providing a solid basis for the analysis of risk scenarios). The second hour will have a practitioner from the European Commission's Joint Research Center (JRC) detail their vision of Foresight, notably its perceived opportunities and limits in the policymaking process. 

Session 3 (week of 2 November): "Foresight Methods & Data" - the second methods-focused course will cover the type of data associated with foresight, and its specific usages. Data-driven techniques covered by the course include, amongst others: trend analysis examining historical data to identify patterns or trends, quantitative models for scenario planning, and cross-impact analysis assessing the interdependencies between variables and factors. The second hour will involve a guest speaker with practical experience of foresight, notably in relation to the use of survey data in foresight exercises. 

Session 4 (week of 23 November): "Back-casting or which Lessons to drawn both from previous or ongoing Crises" - this course is dived into two parts: on the one hand, an initial hour focused on lessons one can draw from the experience of past crises and the role foresight played in the subsequent policy-responses; and on the other, a second hour exploring one of the EU’s earliest Foresight exercises - i.e. one in the fields of Health and Safety.

Session 5 (week of 30 November): "Strategic Foresight and European Policymaking" - this session will cover how foresight informs European decision-making. It will do this by unpacking the centres of expertise involved in strategic foresight within European policy-making processes, offering participants the chance to map foresight stakeholders involved in EU policy processes. 

Session 6 (week of 7 December): "Assessing Actual Foresight Exercises"  - this sixth and final online session will see the CIVIS academics set to lead the in-person foresight exercises present the specific policy challenge they will invite the students to work on during the in-person workshop. The specific policy topics students will be able to choose from are: ‘Urban Planning and Sustainability’, ‘Social Europe’, Gender and Equity’, ‘Migration Policies', 'Technology and Regulation', and 'Conflict Management'. 

The assessment will involve three variables:

1. attendance & relative participation in both the virtual and online sessions (an individual evaluation)
2. the Joint Forecasting Report produced over the course of the one week in-person workshop (a collective evaluation)
3. the oral presentation of the forecasting report scheduled for the workshop's last day (an individual assessment)

Motivation Letter

Level of english (According to CEFR)

CV

Other

The participants will be selected according to their:

• motivation: please order (from 1-to-4 with 1 your preferred choice and 4 your least favoured option) the four possible policy fields scheduled to be covered by the BIP:
  
• • Urban Planning and Sustainability Policies
  • Social Policies
  • Gender and Equity Policies
  • Euro-African Policies CIVIS
• language proficiency,
• previous course work,
• interest in EU policy-making.

CIVIS 

• Lead Academic Amandine Crespy (ULB-IEE, Brussels) is a professor of Political Science and European Studies, affiliated to the Centre d'étude de la vie politique (Cevipol) and the Institute of European Studies at the Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB). She also teaches at the College of Europe (Bruges). Her research focuses mainly on the European Union's economic governance and social policy. She has published her work in a number of French and international journals and collective works. She is the author of four monographs, the latest of which is entitled The European Social Question. Tackling Key Controversies (Agenda, 2022). She is a regular contributor to a number of public debate platforms, including Social Europe and The Conversation.
• Frederik Ponjaert (ULB-IEE, Brussels) is a full-time researcher at the Institute of European Studies of the ULB. He specializes in EU-Asian relations, with a focus on Japan. His publications are in the fields of comparative public policy and international trade. Besides his research, he is also the scientific coordinator of several EU-funded research programs, many of which include forecasting efforts.
• Zoe Lefkofridi (University of Salzburg) is University Professor of Politics & Gender, Diversity & Equality at the Department of Political Science at the University of Salzburg. This professorship of political science represents and promotes gender studies in research and teaching and constitutes the first professorship for gender studies at US and in the Salzburg higher education area. Lefkofridi researches and teaches on democracy, diversity, and equality, focusing on the causes and consequences of unequal political participation and representation Lefkofridi coordinates the consortium of the project  PUSH*BACK*LASH (Horizon Europe) and is member of the consortium of the project ACTEU (Horizon Europe) where she also chairs the Working Package 4 (Representation). Lefkofridi is affiliated with the European Governance and Politics Programme of the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) of the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence. She is the editor of “Political Participation”, co-editor of the series “Politics and Democracy in the Smaller Countries of Europe”, NOMOS Publications and former section editor of the new gold open access journal “Frontiers in Political Science”.
• Matilde Ceron completed her PhD in Political Studies at the University of Milan (NASP). Her dissertation investigated the multilevel interplay between the EU fiscal framework and domestic political, institutional, and economic factors in shaping the composition of public expenditures in the Member States. Matilde holds an MSc in Economics and Social Sciences from Bocconi University and an MA in Public Policy Analysis from the College of Europe. Her research interests cluster at the intersection of EU economic governance, fiscal policy, gender equality, and representation. Before her doctoral studies, she gained experience in policy-oriented research, contributing to evaluations and impact assessments for the EU institutions.
• ​Moneyba González is a professor and researcher at the Department of Political Science and International Relations of the Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (UAM). She is a member of the Institute of Local Law (IDL-UAM) and the Innovation, Technology and Public Management Research Group (IT_GesPub). She is also a collaborating researcher of the Thematic Network on Sustainable Urban Development (URBAN RED). She holds a doctorate in Political Science and Administration (European mention) from the University of Santiago de Compostela (USC), she has been a visiting researcher at the Centre for Sustainable Planning and Environment of the University of the West of England, UWE-Bristol (UK), postdoctoral at the Department of Architecture and Urban Studies (DASTU) of the Politecnico di Milano (Italy), and predoctoral at the Universität Konstanz (Germany). She has also worked at the Research, Evaluation and Quality Unit of the Galician School of Public Administration and at the Galician Industrial Property Service of the Xunta de Galicia.
• Luis Bouza (UAM, Madrid) is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Universidad Autónoma de Madrid. He was the Academic Coordinator of the European General Studies courses of the College of Europe in Bruges between 2012 and 2018 and has also held research and teaching positions at the University of East Anglia and Universidad de Salamanca. He is a graduate of the Universidad Complutense de Madrid, completed his MA at the College of Europe in Natolin, and holds a PhD from Robert Gordon University, Aberdeen.
• Anthony Tibaingana (Makerere University) has worked on international projects such as the Global Business Labs or Polycivis. Professor Tibaingana brings business and marketing skills to this BIP to gauge the impact of the polycrisis on economic development and migratory flows. Professor Tibaingana enjoys a wide experience in coordinating and teaching short-course training across Africa and Europe.
• Mamadou Bodian (Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar) is a researcher at the IFAN Social Studies Laboratory (UCAD). He was the coordinator of the Fulbright Scholarship Support Project in West Africa at the West African Research Center (WARC) in Dakar. With a master's degree in sociology from UCAD and a doctorate in science from the University of Florida (United States), Dr. Bodian teaches sociology of religions at Assane Seck University in Ziguinchor, political sociology at Cheikh Anta Diop University in Dakar, and security at Cheikh Hamidou KANE Digital University (UN-CHK). Dr. Mamadou Bodian was a researcher in the Sahel and West Africa program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden, where he was the operational coordinator of the “Central Mali Project for Security and Development”. He was the coordinator of the committee responsible for developing the Master's program in Peace, Security, and Development at the Virtual University of Senegal (UVS).
• Roman Puff (University of Salzburg) is a professor of History specializing in the history of European integration.

Non-CIVIS (non-exhaustive list)

• Dan Schreiber (European Commission, DG INTPA) is a full-time policy officer at DG INTPA of the European Commission. He is an international expert on peace, development, and humanitarian response in fragile and conflict-affected settings.  He holds a Master's in Public Administration from Erasmus University Rotterdam. He has extensive experience in project management, evaluation, facilitation, and training. He has previously worked with various organisations, including the UN, OECD, and UNDP, and has authored numerous publications, including the OECD's States of Fragility 2020 report.
• Alain Ouattara (UN – OCHA) Deputy Head of Office a.i., OCHA Nigeria. A national from Burkina Faso, is the acting Deputy Head of Office based in Maiduguri, Nigeria. He has more than 15 years of field experience with the United Nations (UN) Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) working in various parts of Africa and the Caribbean, in a wide range of settings including protracted and conflict settings (DRC, Nigeria), natural disasters (Haiti), and the Ebola crisis/ health emergency (DRC). Mr. Ouattara's work in OCHA has focused on preparedness and emergency response in the field of information management, strengthening the organization's role in humanitarian response, context and conflict, and stakeholder analyses, and providing oversight of programmatic tasks. He has also led the Humanitarian Programme Cycle that brings together all humanitarian actors to agree on a standard for inter-agency joint programming in humanitarian emergencies and cooperate to achieve collective results and ensure coherent response strategies and implementations. Before joining OCHA in 2005, Mr. Ouattara worked for United Mission in Iraq from 2002 to 2004, providing information technology services support. He also worked in the private sector in Burkina Faso from 1995 to 2002. Mr. Ouattara holds a Doctorate in Information Technology from Walden University and a Master of Science from the University of Liverpool.
• Laurent Bontoux (Senior Foresight for Policy Expert, Joint Research Centre, EC) is a senior Foresight Policy Expert at European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC).
• Sylva Havlu (DG INTPA, European Commission) is the Director of DG INTPA's strategic foresight team.
• Zdenka Dobiasovia (DG INTPA, European Commission) is currently the team Leader at the Directorate-General for International Partnerships (DG INTPA), Unit G5 - Peace, Resilience and Security
• Tommi Asikainen (JRC, European Commission) is working at the competence centre on foresight at the EU Policy Lab of the Joint Research Centre, European Commission. He is a foresight specialist, currently leading a project of future risks and working on the EU Preparedness Union Strategy. He was co-leading the 2022 Annual Strategic Foresight report “Towards a green and digital future”.